Senior Modelling and Forecasting Manager

Decision Science
Shift Pattern:
Closing date:
Working hours:
37.5 Hours

Lowell is one of Europe’s largest credit management companies, with operations in the UK, Germany and Austria and a vision to be the best in its field in Europe. Lowell’s comprehensive range of products and services improve the financial well-being of clients and consumers, and its experience, expertise, and core strengths in data analytics and operational efficiency underpin its vision to be the most reputable and trusted partner in the European credit management sector.

Lowell’s Decision Science department is focused on understanding, measuring, and predicting consumer financial behaviour. The team comprises business analysts, statisticians, and quantitative scientists dedicated to addressing the company’s most challenging analytic problems. From asset pricing based on sophisticated consumer segmentation schemes, to the development of operational and forecasting models that enhance operational performance, to experimenting with new product ideas for our institutional clients, we use mathematics, psychology, economics, and raw business acumen to support the needs of our pan-European business.

We believe that success in our business depends critically on establishing and maintaining an information advantage. Through our industry-leading consumer database (we currently hold data on 1 in 5 UK, and 1 in 7 German, consumers), Lowell has developed proprietary behavioural and asset valuation models, bespoke software applications, and a variety of other business tools. Moreover, each year we make significant investments in credit bureau and proprietary consumer data that describe demographic, account-level, and macroeconomic factors related to credit, savings, and payment behaviour. Our pan-European relationship with low- and middle-income consumers provides a unique perspective on household consumption, credit, and saving behaviours and, through our work, we hope to advance thinking in the areas of business operations and consumer intelligence.

Main purpose of job

The Senior Modelling and Forecasting Manager (1) leads a team responsible for the company's asset revaluation and forecasting process (including monthly and quarterly reporting activities, the calculation of enterprise estimated remaining collections, and related audit and approval processes with internal stakeholders and external auditors), (2) provides analytic leadership for high-value departmental and corporate activities (involving both hands-on analysis as well as management of other analysts and process experts), and (3) is expected to grow into a departmental deputy role, providing broad team leadership in partnership with the UK department head.

While the role demands technical proficiency (e.g., directing new methods for asset valuation), it is a leadership role that requires the ability to succeed through leverage, influence, and partnership.  Moreover, this role requires passion for developing and leading a team and the manager must be committed to people leadership and capable of both setting a strategic vision and creating enthusiasm in others.  Excellent problem solving skills, judgment, and integrity, and good ambiguity tolerance are essential for success, as is the ability to provide coaching and developmental feedback to direct reports and team members.

This is an exciting opportunity to join a team that partners broadly within the organization and influences the company’s operational, analytic, and financial strategies. Moreover, this role is part of a thriving, pan-European modelling community devoted to using the best elements of applied and theoretical work from statistics, psychology, management science, and behavioural economics to understand the fundamental drivers of consumer financial behaviour.

Future Decision Science team members are likely to show equal curiosity and comfort discussing the trade-offs between different statistical methods, the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer behaviour, or the fundamental drivers of revenue and cost within a business unit.

Key responsibilities

  • Analytic leadership for the company’s proprietary asset revaluation and forecasting platform, with an emphasis on continuous improvement, segment-level error analysis, and integration of current and future operational performance indicators
  • Direct leadership for two to five business and/or statistical analysts, especially around mentorship and coaching, technical training, and reward and recognition
  • Manage the post-purchase forecasting process, including presentations to the Operations groups and executive leadership and active partnership with the Finance department
  • Lead the development of tracking tools that gauge current and future asset performance, and ensure that new business initiatives are accurately reflected in forecasting analyses
  • Manage high-priority analytic activities of significant importance to both Decision Science and the broader organization
  • Active participation in the department’s Modelling Symposium, which includes discussion of theoretical and methodological papers, peer-review of ongoing projects, topical seminars, and ongoing training focused on effective communications, data visualization, and experimental methods

Functional expertise/technical skills/qualifications

  • Master’s degree in business or a quantitative science (e.g., economics, math, finance) with coursework in statistics
  • Working knowledge of Base SAS, SAS/STAT, Enterprise Guide, or Enterprise Miner
  • Excellent statistical intuition, built through prior analyst roles, that can be used to sanity-check work, identify and remedy analytic challenges, and provide creative direction to project teams
  • Prior exposure to financial statements and reporting would be beneficial
  • Advanced proficiency with MS Office, especially Excel

Required experience

  • Extensive experience in a related field, likely progressing from early analyst roles focused on developing and deploying financial and predictive modelling tools and methods to later team leader experience directing analytic staff
  • Previous role(s) leading a high-performing team (preferably involving direct management of analytic staff), with demonstrated evidence of coaching, mentorship, and inspirational leadership
  • Financial services experience, including familiarity with the logic of credit scoring and the development of marginal economic analyses
  • Prior exposure to financial statements and reporting would be beneficial

Business and Personal Leadership/skills and attitudes

The Decision Science team is driven to succeed and motivated by the challenge of answering the company’s most difficult questions. Traits and competencies likely to be associated with success in this role include,

  • Exceptional problem solving skills
  • Creativity
  • Intellectual curiosity
  • The relentless pursuit of better answers
  • Superior ambiguity tolerance
  • Flexibility to travel to other Lowell sites
  • Effective communicator with excellent organisational skills
  • In addition, the Senior Modelling and Forecasting Manager should be an effective communicator with excellent organisational skills and the ability to set and achieve ambitious team goals

Excited about this opportunity! Get in touch before 23rd May'18

Senior Modelling and Forecasting Manager